Are we standing at the threshold of World War 3?
Donald Trump won the election in late 2016, took office in early 2017, only a year after 2018, declared a trade war with China. Constantly there, today, the two countries, officially or semi-officially, have entered an ideological war, no longer at the commercial and economic level, but into other areas.
From these events, some people think that we are standing at the threshold of World War 3.
Let’s take a closer look at the issue.
From trade wars, tariffs to economic, scientific and ideological wars
As we all know, trade war on tariffs is to levy taxes or increase taxes on imported goods. The United States has increased tariffs from 10% to 25%, 50% on imports from China. But relentlessly there, on May 22, 2020, the Trump administration released a 16-page Report, called the outreach strategy to the People’s Republic of China, signed by Mr. Trump. on May 19 and was submitted to Parliament the following day.
Accordingly: The US-China relations over the past few decades have completely failed, now a new strategy is needed to contain China. It also makes it clear that until Xi Jinping’s regime has not collapsed, the relationship between the United States and China has not been reconciled. This is what made many people think that World War Three was near.
On the Chinese side, before the opening of the Bicameral Conference on May 28, 2020, Xi reiterated the sentence: “Capital will dissipate, socialism will triumph”, causing many people, including some American politics came to the conclusion that China did not abandon its policy of confrontation with capital and specifically aimed at the United States, demanding its destruction. This is also one of the reasons people think we are at the threshold of the war.
In a press conference, about the new US Strategy for China, Mr. Trump stated: “The losses that the United States suffered from the Covis-19 epidemic, despite the 100 US-China trade agreements. cannot compensate for it. “
The report said that ahead of the Xi Jinping government’s comprehensive offensive, provocation, and expansion into the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea and the China-India border, the Trump administration was determined to take action. a zero-tolerance policy.
Today we are witnessing a confrontation between China and India on the border of the two countries, at the foot of the Himalayas, causing fatal damage on both sides, according to the latest news.
The report highlights six abuses from the day Xi Jinping took office. These are:
Purifying the opposition in the party by taking advantage of the anti-corruption movement.
unfair prosecution of bloggers, democracy activists, righteous activists.
Arrest and suppression of ethnic minority and religious groups.
Conduct strict and rigorous controls on information, media, universities, businesses and anarchic organizations.
Monitoring and ranking social credit of citizens, businesses and organizations.
Arbitrary supervision, torture and mistreatment of dissidents.
Before talking about whether or not the world war could happen, let’s talk about:
The correlation of US-China forces. A quick look at the past to understand the present to grasp the future
Talking about the relationship of US-China forces, in the framework of this article, we cannot go too deep. But the United States still holds the upper hand, although today China imitates or steals technology, producing everything from submarines, fifth-generation aircraft, aircraft carriers, etc.
Duc Tran Hung Dao, who defeated the Mongols three times, can be said to be the strongest army in the world at that time, won from Asia to Europe, said: “Weapons do not need much, just sharp sharp. Army does not need to be crowded, just need to be friendly. ”
Perhaps because of that, the Global World FirePower 2020 ranks in terms of military strength, then the United States still leads, followed by Russia, China, fourth India, followed by Japan, then South Korea. etc …; Although there are counties, in terms of numbers between the United States and China, China is more than the United States as the submarine territory: in terms of the number of ships, China has 777 ships, about submarines, there are 74 ships, China Ky has 490 ships and 66 submarines.
But US submarines and ships are “sharper”, more advanced. Chinese vessels can only operate in coastal areas, not yet offshore. Let’s take the typical example of aircraft carrier, the United States has 20 aircraft (also according to Global World FirePower), China only has 2 aircraft, one bought from Ukhraine, one just built, but had to return to the dock. because of technical problems. Meanwhile US aircraft carriers are spread across five continents and four seas. Nuclear submarines of the United States are all nuclear-powered, able to dive all year deep into the sea and need not float to collect fuel, making it difficult to detect. While most of China’s submarines are still running on diesel, they have to emerge occasionally to get fuel, and when they run they make a sound and are easy to detect.
About the Air Force, the United States has 13 264 aircraft, already in the 5th generation; China has 3210, still in the third life.
A look at the
past Here we want to talk about the recent past: World War II (1939 – 1945).
World War II began in 1939 and ended on April 30, 1945, when Hitler and his wife took a suicide pill, going to the Nazi surrender. World War consists of two factions: Axis, including Germany, Italy and Japan. The Allies, at first there were France, England, after France lost on June 15, 1940, there was the Soviet Union, forced to jump into the round of battle on June 22, 1941, because of German attack; then the United States in late December 1941, because of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. This proves that not all great powers want to fight, but sometimes they are bound, like Britain, France, the United States, and the Soviet Union.
In terms of force relations, the Nazis at first seemed to be superior to the Allies. The German Army is a professional army, more thoroughly trained, in terms of aircraft, tanks and cannons. Specific evidence is that the German army defeated the French army in six weeks, from early May 1940 to mid-June 1940, causing France to sign a truce on June 22, 1940.
Hitler and the General Staff chose June 22, 1941 to start a Soviet campaign in an attempt to crush the Soviet Union as if it had crushed France.
Sun Tzu said: “Knowing people, knowing we won’t lose one hundred battles.” During the Second World War, Hitler and the General Staff did not know people, did not know us: Overestimating ourselves and underestimating the enemy. Even the battle between Japan and the US in Asia Pacific is the same.
Going from the event that could defeat France, a military power at the time, that had just won World War I (1914-1918), Hitler and the General Staff calculated that it could defeat the Soviet Union in 12 weeks, double the time to fight the French, with 5 times the military force; 6 times. That is why Hitler chose June 22, 1941, the day France surrendered, to start Operation Barbarossa, fight the Soviet Union.
Indeed, at the beginning of Operation Barbarossa, the Germans stormed into the Soviet Union, right from the beginning, destroying 1200 aircraft, capturing millions of Soviet prisoners of war, including Staline’s child. But then the Germans met fierce resistance.
The Germans invaded the Soviet Union with three attacks, in the classical sense that the Chinese Army consisted of 1.2 million soldiers, aimed at Moscou, the Right Army comprised of 1 million soldiers, aimed at Kiev, of Ukhraine, and the deportment consisted of 800,000 troops targeting the city of Léninegrade. A total of 3 million troops, with thousands of tanks, aircraft, and artillery.
As mentioned above, the German army initially marched along in a rush, according to the “Lightning War” Strategy. But then was stopped, because of the fierce opposition of the Soviet Union, which was the first reason; The next reason is the remote road, difficult transportation of food and ammunition, different from the case against the countries of Central Europe and France. Add to that the harsh weather: intense rain in September, then the winter: chillingly cold, with places below 50 degrees Celsius.
The Germans were around the city of Moscou at the end of September, but could not immediately launch the attack because they waited for food and guns to be transported, after nearly three months of operation. In September 1941, severe floods rained down on the city of Moscou, flooding everyone, unable to see the road. In addition, the rain made the roads muddy, became muddy, clinging to the wheels of even tanks, making transportation difficult for the Germans. It was not until early October, exactly on October 2, 1941, that the Germans attacked Moscou, lasted until January 22, 1942, within 3 months and 20 days, and then had to withdraw. Withdrawing from Moscou illustrates the fact that the German army has not achieved its main goal.
Hitler and the General Staff did not listen to Sun Tzu: “Heaven in time, terrain, peace.” Heaven and earth are not beneficial. By the way, Hitler and the Germans treated the prisoners brutally, especially since Staline and the Communist Party through propaganda that turned the war into a patriotic war rather than a communist war against fascism. At this point we see that Mao and Ho have imitated Staline and Soviet Communism.
According to many historians today, with the search for documents, including the interrogation of the German general as Hitler’s military adviser, at the end of December 1941, Hitler knew he was losing, because of the policy. “Rapid war” strategy quickly, resolving the battlefield quickly, now has to fall into a state of war in the city, fighting slowly and solving difficult wars. In the following battles, the German army became passive and no longer owned the battlefield until the day of defeat. Although there were later major matches such as the Battle of Koursk from July 5 to August 23, 1943.
The same goes for the war between the United States and Japan in Asia Pacific. Japan also “does not know people, does not know me”, underestimates the US war machine, thinking that it can destroy the US Navy by attacking Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. But the Japanese military was wrong, the US Navy was not defeated, but revenge was ensued half a year later, at the Battle of Midway in June 1942, causing heavy casualties to the Japanese troops, losing 4 aircraft. the aircraft carrier, killing and injuring 6000 Japanese pilots and marines. One could say that after the Battle of Midway, the Japanese navy could no longer control the Pacific Ocean